Global port congestion shows little sign of improvement

Container shipping analysts around the world have this week been providing updates on the global port congestion picture with shippers told to brace for further hindrances going into Q2.

Danish supply chain research company Sea-Intelligence has predicted that an increase in March and April in the number of vessels scheduled to deliver cargo from Asia to North America will add to port congestion for two reasons.

In March and April, the number of vessels scheduled to depart Asia – and subsequently arrive on the North American West Coast – will increase sharply and surpass a 40% increase compared to the pre-pandemic normality, according to Alan Murphy, CEO of Sea-Intelligence.

Further, as more ships are deployed, the number of smaller ships increases. In simplified terms, Murphy pointed out, it is less efficient to handle two 5,000 teu vessels than it is to handle one 10,000 teu vessel, once the time to get to and from berth is factored in.

“What is more alarming,” Murphy pointed out, “is that there is a 60% increase in the number of vessels on the Asia-North America East Coast trade lane in the coming months, as carriers try to circumnavigate port congestion on the West Coast. This will severely increase pressure on the port infrastructure on the East Coast.”

Meanwhile, analysts at Alphaliner say they have seen no improvement in terms of vessel delays in the Asia – North Europe and China – California trades since its latest trade surveys published last November.

Despite an overall decline in the number of ships waiting for a berth at Los Angeles/Long Beach from a peak of 109 units on January 9 to only 76 ships at the start of this week, the fronthaul transit time for ships sailing from Asia to these twin ports has increased according to Alphaliner to an average of 38 days, up from the 28 days recorded in mid-November.

Vessel delays for ships on a full Asia – North Europe round voyage are also unchanged from early November, the date Alphaliner’s last survey of this trade. The 14,000 to 24,000 teu ships on this route still require on average 17 days more than their pro forma schedules to reach Central China for their next westbound trip.

Finally, data from US platform project44 shows that port congestion is increasingly shifting to Asia.

From December to January, Asian ports, on average, recorded an increase from 13 days to 16.7 days in terms of the amount of time that ships were waiting to berth.

Of the Asian ports, Hong Kong recorded the biggest increase, from an average of 17.5 days in December to 22.5 days in January.

This increase in congestion has been attributed to new Covid-19 outbreaks in Asia and specifically in China.

“While the ocean freight market will likely see a slight lull during February, we expect demand will pick up once again once manufacturing facilities reopen. The potential for further port congestion is likely in the coming month as US retailers and other shippers replenish and increase safety inventories,” project44 suggested in an update this week.